It is the end of the year so in keeping with our usual custom we are writing a series of articles that look back on 2009 and make some predictions for 2010.
We’ll kick off with five things that will change social media PR next year
1 The commoditisation of mobile phone apps
If 2009 was the year of Twitter then 2010 will be the year that mobile phone apps go mainstream. Obviously iPhone users have been downloading apps for many months now, but as we enter the New Year the quality of those apps is reaching new heights.
Next year will see other manufacturers and mobile phone networks offering apps. In addition to the iPhone there will be a surge of apps for both the Google Android platform and for a revamped Nokia Ovi one. Other manufacturers, like Samsung , have announced their own app platform and networks like Vodafone are hoping to offer unique apps to their subscribers.
We are also about to see a wave of media companies wading into the space too. The Guardian debuted its app last week and the Daily Mail apparently has a dozen or so apps lined up for next year.
It will also be cheaper and easier to make apps. Prices have been tumbling for a while now and there are now even DIY app sites starting to emerge.
What this means for brands/PRs – Far sighted brands are already in on the iPhone market with interesting apps. Next year though the agenda will be less about the iPhone and more about apps that target a range of smartphones. Analysts are predicting a 10% rise in Smartphone penetration for next year, but it will probably be 2011/2012 when the market really matures and apps are central not just the top-end phones to but to all mobile users.
The key for brands will be to develop apps that stand out from their rivals. This means apps that are fun and do something useful but have subtle but clear brand associations.
The problem brands will face will be touting their apps. It will soon be very crowded market – in the same way that Facebook apps were a few years back – and brands will have to work hard on strategies to promote their apps. The days of just creating an app and putting it on iTunes and hoping for thousand of downloads will be gone for good.
2 The rise of Farmville
The most popular web phenomenon of the year wasn’t actually Twitter, it was Farmville. The Facebook powered virtual farm game has attracted over 60 million users – even more than Twitter. The big question for anyone involved in social media revolves around whether Farmville is a fad – like a more sophisticated virtual Pokémon but with pigs and aubergines – or whether it is the start of something truly huge. There are many people who think it is the latter. Farmville’s owners recently took $200 million in investment capital and there are plans to expand the service and offer similar games online.
What this mean for brands /PRs – So far Farmville has proved elusive to brands. Some web based businesses like Netflix have advertised on the game , but as Zynga’s CEO Mark Pincus freely admits it is difficult creating opportunities for brands that enhance Farmville rather than detract from it. It does however remain a great opportunity for far sighted brands to engage with what is already a massive audience. Many brands experimented with the virtual game Second Life when it was at its peak two year ago. Farmville offers what Second Life could never achieve – a huge audience. Zynga will need to work out more subtle ways of monetising the game and clever associations with brands is a very sensible route to go. It will be fascinating to see how Farmville and its relationships with brands develop next year.
3 The contraction of the media/blogosphere
You don’t need me to tell you that 2009 has been a very difficult year for British media. Magazines have closed, newspapers have cut staff and broadcasters reined back plans. If the economy improves then in theory 2010 should be a better year. However the problem facing many media owners is not just declining advertising revenue, it is about the structural change of the media and in particular the rise of the web and the decline of print. Ultimately the media has to work how it can effetely monetise the web. Launching paywalls is one solution but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that readers won’t to pay for online content.
It isn’t just mainstream media which is contracting. Several high profile blogs went on hold this year as their owners realised that the chance of making money from them was little more than a pipe dream. The number of people blogging for pleasure also declined with many switching to Twitter to share news and ideas with their families and friends.
What this means for brands/PRs – Getting coverage on blogs is becoming more and more difficult. The most high profile blogs are more aware of their position (like old media) and much more picky about that they write about than they were a few years back. Many mid range blogs whose owners write for fun rather than for any commercial reasons, tend to have fewer posts too.
The big issue facing social media PRs is that increasingly blog owners are expecting to be paid for writing about products. This has been happening in the US for a while where a law was recently passed that put the onus on bloggers to admit if they had been paid for a post. In the UK tumbling ad revenues means that many mid range sites are now looking for alternative sources of income. Being paid to write about a company or a product will become widespread next year (it is already a major source of income for newspaper websites e.g. the Daily Mail which typically has 6/7 advertorial on its web pages) and social media agencies will need to work out how it feels about paying bloggers for posts.
4 The growth of parenting websites
Mumsnet may have grabbed the headlines with its election specials, but its recent high profile shines a light on a trend that has been emerging for several years – namely the power of parenting websites. Mainstream media companies like Bauer and IPC largely ignore parenting websites during the early part of the decade enabling groups of independent site of which Mumsnet is the largest, to become very popular. They now wield power and influence that the mainstream companies can only dream of.
More recently the Mummy blogging phenomena, which has become very influential in the US, has taken off in the UK. The British Mummy Blogging network now boast over 700 blogger members with the leading sites attracting thousands of readers each month.
What it means for brands – Web savvy companies have been courting parenting forums for some time now. One company, Johnson& Johnson, has even built its own website forum in Baby Centre. However the largest websites and bloggers now find themselves in a hugely powerful position not because of the standard of their content, but because of the depth of their community.’ The debate on most forums is of little interest to brands because it is such poor quality,’ an advertising executive told me recently.’ However with Mumsnet and the other sites much of that debate is parents offering advice to each other and that makes the sites very valuable among brands who are seeking to court online influentials.’
For social media PRs the sites and blogs represent a problem because they are traditionally wary of brands. Many mummy bloggers now complain of being spammed by PRs who deliver inappropriate pitches, while forums often steer clear of favouring one brand over another. The challenge for PRs in the next few years will be to engage with both forum owners and mummy bloggers, but ensuring that the stories they offer are relevant and interesting. In the same way that PRs quite often know their core journalists very well, so they will now have to develop deep relationships with forum owners, bloggers and online influentials.
5 Augmented reality
The last few months of the year have seen a big spurt in the number of applications that use augmented reality apps, the most important of which is Layar. This lets you overlay a layer of digital content over external reality as seen through your phone’s camera. Point your phone’s camera at a street/building/person, and on the screen, information about what you’re seeing is overlaid onto your view of it. With Layar any developer with a bright idea can add their own layer of content. There’s a Wikipedia layer for location-tagged Wikipedia entries, a find-an-available-house layer called Funda set up by an entrepreneurial Irish developer with an interest in property, and a bank has done one marking all nearby ATMs. Perhaps the ultimate app would be one that enables you to discover more about a person you are talking to, In other words, point the camera at them and it runs through their Spotify playlists, most tweeted words, and your mutual friends on Facebook etc.
There are many augmented reality apps being developed for both the iPhone and the Google Android platform and they are sure to be among the most talked about technology of 2010.
What this means for PRs/brands – From this juncture it is a bit early to say. AR is is perhaps less of an opportunity for brands to PR products and services, and more one for developing interesting niche apps. Augmented Reality does have an exciting future – think educational and remote surgery as two of its core possibilities – but for next year it will be all about travel guides and niche and fun games.
Of course all this is just our opinion, what do you think are going to be the big trends next year? Or if you’re a brand maybe you are planning to be more involved in the social web next year? If so let us know…
Congratulations to our sister agency Red, whose campaign for McAfee was named Global Campaign of the Year at last week’s PR Week Awards in New York. 
Today the Shiny Red team decorated our Christmas tree so we’re all feeling very festive. If, like us, you’re now in the mood for mince pies, mistletoe and merriment, why not take a look at our round-up of seasonal activity online:
